Had coffee with a friend today and like always, we spent time ruminating (don't you just love that word?). Seriously, we enjoy talking big picture Sun City, it's future and why it is so bright. He shared some concerns by a friend who felt Sun City was in trouble long term, meaning by the time the millennia's get here. I admit, I'm interested in where we are headed, but even that's too far out for me. I'd be delighted if we could try and sort out what we need to stay abreast of what late stage boomer's will be looking for. There's no argument from experts that boomers are not a "one size fits all" category. It's why I always try and tweak the RCSC board to begin true long range planning. Living in the vacuum of hit and miss by board's throwing money at projects willy-nilly is a fools game. One of the most significant events in Sun City's future will hit us before years end. If K Hovnanian sells out their 144 home sites quickly, it will be the kind of eye opener for developers that we have not witnessed since that crazy time in 1977 when 3500 homes were sold by DEVCO. It will be the catalyst, the stimulus for all bets to be off for any land that is sitting empty or undervalued. Lord knows I have been one of the most outspoken critics of the money we have been pouring into the golf division. It begs the question: Is there a method to the madness. Whenever I read we have 11 golf courses in Sun City, I have to stop and think. Of course we do, but 3 of them are private courses. And all 3 are in the latter stages of an aging population who saw a "country club lifestyle" as an important aspect of their way of life. And all 3 are in need of the kinds of love we are shoveling at the RCSC courses (lots of money). It begs the question: Does anyone know what the deed restrictions are for the 3 private clubs? Nope, not trying to cause a panic by those living on the privates, but anyone who is not realistic enough to see where we are going, needs a crash course in economics. Land values are going to be tested once K Hovnanian homes hit the market place. I'm not just talking about private golf courses, but shopping centers and any tract of empty land in Sun City. We've already talked about the importance of improving our performance venues (Sun Bowl and Sun Dial). Now we see the board throwing 9 million dollars at Mountainview in 2020 (where did that number come from?). Frankly I love the idea, but I'd love it a whole lot more if the rest of the community was involved rather than just the RCSC board of directors. The point of this exercise is once again to get the board and the community in touch with the importance of true long range planning. Using the kind of information that's available. You know, little things like rounds played, full play golf passes purchased over the last 20 years, outside play vs inside play. Then we need look at boomers and the trends we are seeing as they age. Working or not? Golfing or not? Cerebral or physical activities? All of this is measurable, but I'll be the first to admit, it takes some work and a commitment. And while I'm twerking (thanks Miley) you all here, after watching Sawyer Fredricks and John Fogerty sing on the Voice last night, let's get a Creedence Clearwater Revival Tribute band on the bill for this fall or next spring. My goodness they were good.
HI Bill I have been checking out the site for a few months now and have made a couple of comments but nothing of any consequence. I have really enjoyed reading your comments and commend you for all the hard work and information sharing you provide to the forum. I have read numerous threads and I believe that I know your position (to some degree), with relation on the golf courses in Sun City. Correct me if I am wrong but you have commented numerous times on the cost of maintaining the golf courses and the millions of dollars they have been pouring into the courses in the past few years. I'd just thought I would give you my "two cents" and my thoughts. I can say that my wife and I are at the bottom end of the "boomers" and will really only be of "age" for the community next year. The sole reason we bought in Sun City was for the abundance of the golf, at a very reasonable rate. We had a house in Anthem but always found our way down to Sun City to golf. One day we decided instead of driving the 40 min back and fourth, why don't we look at buying. So we took the plunge and bought last February. So are we last of the boomers that consider golf as a large part of their recreational activity? Can't say for sure but I know our kids 23yrs and 26yrs both enjoy golf and aren't giving up the game anytime soon. It would be interesting to see a survey when new owners come in the the community, ranking the 5 top reasons for moving to Sun City. I wonder where golf would fall in the ranking compared to other activities. Are we the norm or a dying breed , I don't know. All I can say is that the main reason why we purchased was for the golf. Would we have purchased if there was only two courses, probably not, five, most likely. If there were only two courses we probably would of bought in Corte Bella.
Visitor Center Yesterday at the SC Visitor Center most of the people were looking to move here. There was even a couple from Whidbey Island in WA where I came from! They seem to be coming in droves. Summer weather does not seem to deter them. Most are escaping the winter weather where they now live. I'll have to remember to ask what brought them to Sun City. BTW. Some had already looked at SCW but SC seemed better!!! Both by price and location.
Hey 4n6, thanks for the kind words and especially for jumping into the fray. You are spot on regarding the survey. The good news is the RCSC ran one where people could and did respond to questions last year; the bad news, now what? At least a couple of us have been chiding the RCSC to create an in depth point of purchase questionnaire. When you consider more than 2000 homes change hands each year, you quickly come to understand how over time you build meaningful statistics. There's a reason grocery stores track purchases. There's a reason everyone from casino's to the Best Buy's of the world have loyalty cards; they want to know what you are buying and using. Catering to the clientele is just good business. The problem for the RCSC is they would need to develop it and more importantly track it in a meaningful way. There's a cost to that and apparently the powers that be, haven't seen the return on investment in doing that. As far as golf courses, let me say this: I don't know if the financial commitment we've made (getting close to 40 million dollars) will be worth it. We know we needed to do the irrigation and wells. We know golfers love the expanded outdoor area, the 19th tee. We also know since the North course opened to rave reviews, lots of folks have been complaining. The 12 to 18 month grow in period has caused the director of golf to be trying to explain why there are issues on a regular basis. There's also folks who think the North course is just too hard for them. We'll have the same issues at Riverview when that opens. The real strength of our golf is the number of courses, the reasonable cost to play them and the condition we keep them in. I just struggle with whether the return on investment above and beyond what we needed to spend will be worth it. Because there are clearly other things we could be doing with some of that 40 million dollars. As long as I'm on golf, let me go back to my earlier post in this thread and use a metaphor to paint a picture that may well be the underlying thought behind this. I have a working knowledge of the grocery business. It's one that has been in flux for years. Traditional grocers have struggled. They often had older smaller stores and they target marketed a neighborhood. Over time, bigger, nicer, newer stores came into vogue and the older stores couldn't compete. They didn't have the capital to remodel and ultimately they just closed. I see our 3 country clubs in the same position. The RCSC is upgrading, while the privates are just struggling to hold their market share. It's been a constant battle as they find less folks interested in the country club way of life, less golfers and their courses are aging. The land they sit in keeps increasing in value, but not as a golf course. In fact, as that land increases in value to a developer, it becomes less attractive as a country club simply because of how much the RCSC is investing in their courses. The point here is if we lost 1 or 2 of those private country clubs in the next 10 years, we'd have more golfers playing Sun City courses (to say nothing of the massive number of homes that would be added to the community). We'll always be a destination for golfers, but it's never reached 20% of the population. No one from the RCSC has ever said those words (essentially driving the "competition" out of business), nor should they. But as I have written numerous times, there's always a cause and effect...and most often it is easily measured. Let me just conclude with this: I have lots of thoughts, ideas and suggestions. I've never said they are right or are they something we must do. My point has always been to open these questions, concerns and potential solutions to the population at large. When we get input from residents, we create buy-in to the idea we are taking ownership, we most often come away better for it. The goal should always be to make people feel good about buying in Sun City and then encouraging them to take process in the ownership of the community.
Yup, but first you have to get them to buy in. The key to keeping Sun City a viable option is to keep it relevant to future retirees. For instance for the Gen X generation, what does Sun City need to look like? For my daughter and son-in-law Sun City is quite attractive. He loves golf and she is the ultimate community organizer type. She would thrive with many of the clubs, while her husband would be happy with just handling golf clubs. For my son and daughter-in-law they don't get it. They are not joiners or community type people and golf is a no for them so Sun City for them may not be a good choice. However, with that said I am seeing a slight change in them recently. They got family started late in life and have 3 & 4 year old girls, so soon they will be getting into the soccer scene, etc., which may get them more involved in the community. My son is a leather working artist and he does admit the leatherworking club sounds interesting. His motorcycle leatherworking side business is on the verge of becomming full time so in retirement I can see him being the old motorcycle dude that is teaching others. If folks really give Sun City a fair look they will find that Sun City has something for everyone. Can it keep up with the times and be relevant for Gen X and Gen Z... time will tell.
I love this kind of discourse, because we all tend to focus on what we know. In our case, it's Sun City. That's why I love the 55places website. They have it all listed. One quickly comes to understand our competition is everything we are and often more (not more in total amenities, but newer and more grand and way more expensive). The reason virtually all new developments use the Play and Stay is because once you get them there, there's so much better a chance to make a sale. That's exactly why I was a proponent of the RCSC buying properties when they were at rock bottom and creating a rental/retail sales division. I was in the minority regarding this matter, and it's exactly why I wanted it to go before the community where we could talk through the pro's and con's. Everyone tells me that's the job of the Realtor's, but I'm still waiting for one of them to step up and do it. Water over the damn yet again, but we are perfectly positioned to stay relevant for years to come. That's why data gathering on new home buyers is so important. That's why interacting at the community level is critical. This month the RCSC president is putting out the call for residents to get involved by running for the board. Good idea, but realistically that comes down to 3 people out of the 40,000 plus getting their hands in the clay. Sorry, but board positions are, or at least should not be, the end-all-be-all. There is a long and storied history of kids following their parents and or grandparents to Sun City. It's been that way for the past 50 years and it will be that way for the next 50...especially if we listen to those living here.
I think you dreamt it E. Funny thing is when Paul Herrmann and I began the quest to start the Next Gen (Boomer's) club, we saw them becoming exactly what your dream was about. Our original goal was in part to have them welcome other boomers, to help them transition and feel comfortable. The good news was others got involved and both Paul and I got out of the way.
