Will Sun City sales explode?

After a week away, interesting to see some things haven't changed much. Oh well.

I have noted the large number of for sale signs across the community. I also for some reason began receiving in my email a daily update on home sales near us. Odd in that i had not signed up for it. What was apparent was home values have fallen off. No surprise as many of the homes around us had inflated price tags (just one man's opinion).

As i was scanning my Facebook feed today, i came across another good 55Places post. The article, headed "This Month's Real Estate Insight" had this to say:
"Last year was the slowest home sales market on record since 1995, as homeowners held onto their low interest rates from a few years ago. This year shows promise as year-over-year comparisons showed 17% more homes for sale in February and 10% more in March than last year. April showed even more promise with 30% more active inventory on the market than this time last year.

While many states show minimal inventory growth, seven states (Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Idaho, Tennessee, Texas, and Utah) are above pre-pandemic inventory levels. The inventory of unsold existing homes jumped 8.1% to begin April with a 4-month supply of homes on the national market."

More inventory is a good thing for buyers, with lower prices being even better. Like those first days when Sun City opened, potential new home owners in Sun City often come with cash in hand and the prevailing mortgage rates aren't as important for at least half those looking.

This stat surprised me, but i guess when considering the sheer numbers of boomers, it shouldn't:
"Baby boomers make up 42% of all home buyers, making them the top generation of homebuyers. This news makes it clear that 55+ buyers, including retirees, can secure funds to purchase a new home. Still, it pays to take precautions and prepare for the restrictions of the current stagnant market."

The data clearly supports the importance of why marketing Sun City by the RCSC is so crucial. Oddly, they fail to understand the importance of it. You can read the article hear. You can also sign up and get information from 55Places on the link provided.

 

I agree 100% that marketing is crucial, and SC has done a terrible job of it. You easily get twice as much bang for the recreation buck in SC as anywhere else. Yes, there are planes, trains and homeless people so it may not be the choice for those that can afford to be pampered. But for those looking to be part of something really special, SC is the place to be. Just one man's opinion.

 

After posting this, i was curious and reached out to my good friend and Realtor as to sales totals in Sun City the past two months; here's what he sent back to me:
2024. 2025.
March: 153. March: 149.
April: 144. April: 169.

To be clear, these numbers reflect actual sales, the RCSC will typically show slightly higher numbers because of title/deed transfers, as opposed to home purchases. In any event, the past two months have a slightly higher total than the previous year.

 

People will continue to buy here because it is still relatively affordable, has good amenities and is close to medical facilities.
Most people buying here don't care about the politics anymore, here or in general.
Many houses are going up for sale because we're losing our silents and older boomers now, which breaks my heart.
Also, a lot of Canadians and snowbirds are selling and many people are choosing to live in one residence.
We need to be somewhat frugal, use our PIF wisely and keep the buildings and amenities that we currently have in good shape.
It's common sense, really.

 

I believe the predominant reason anyone will purchase here is because we cost the least. When I read some of the comments on other sites, it usually relates to how much cheaper it was to buy here. Which in turn relates to the desire to want to improve the quality of the amenities offered. These buyers may desire greater amenities but won’t want to pay for them. As it is now, increases are on the horizon just in the cost to maintain what is here, without adding any additional amenities or upgrades. Envisioning opportunities for RCSC to expand what it currently offers would surely help attract others to the community, but costs will certainly increase, there is no doubt about it. To believe that there is a need to increase the yearly assessment is to be grounded in reality. To think no increases are needed is absolutely ridiculous.

 

It's an interesting discussion and one rooted in our past. When Sun City opened, the challenge for DEVCO wasn't competition from other age restricted communities, but more so the stigma of moving away from family and friends and buying a place that was virtually in the middle of the desert. It's why i always focus on the massive and wildly successful marketing program they did.

It didn't take long for others to follow suit and by the 70's, Webb had competition for the senior housing market. The data speaks for itself: While we always focus on the success of selling Sun City those first years, the second half blew the first half out of the water. Think not? Phase 1 first 9 years; roughly 9000 homes. All other phases second 9 years; roughly 18,000 homes.

Marketing worked, it still does. I've long written of our "value" and our "values." They are uniquely different and i used to go to great lengths to explain them. Then, we took a hard right turn and abandoned what we knew worked and embraced the idea we could become just like our competition, only way cheaper. It worked really good, as cheap became synonymous with Sun City; rather than being about our "value" and "values."

The cheap mantra we were touting was so effective we took our eye off the prize. Cheap housing, cheap amenities and cheap golf branded us in the framework we had so carefully constructed; CHEAP. Oops, as we embraced that construct, we let the structure collapse from within. It was well disguised to the point we had little idea how bad it was.

Then the pandemic hit, the long serving GM retired and the new guy had to fess up; there were indeed issues we had to address. Coming out of 2020 and into 2021, we suddenly realized life as we knew it (cheap) had been a tragic mistake. Worse than that, the cost of catching up was going to be two and three times more expensive had we just maintained what we had.

Let me be very clear; the struggles we are facing is hitting everyone, everywhere. Inflation has ravaged all of us, no matter where we live. I get news feeds every day from The Villages of Florida, easily the largest age restricted community in the country. The lament is rising costs are ruining their American dream. Many are calling for a freeze on their amenity rates (they vary on location between $140 and $195 per month). In Sun City West there is angst over the costs of owning their golf courses and the impact on fees because of subsidizing golf.

With some 3000 like communities to ours, the competition is fierce. As Carole mentioned costs will continue to rise, and as Emily cited, we need be smart about how and where we spend the money we have. I would argue, just as important is we began marketing to seniors who want an active life style as opposed to someone who just wants a "cheap place to live."

We made that mistake for far too many years and now digging our way out has been expensive and ugly. That's the problem with expecting one person to have all the answers and letting them decide our fate. Board's failing to do their oversight and rubber stamping the agenda never made sense to me, it still doesn't.

As John mentioned above, Sun City will always be an attractive option. We have great amenities at costs far below others in the market place. Selling the community for being cheap is/was a mistake. The fact that it is should not be the feature nor the future. The reality is and always has been Sun City is a great place to live for dozens of reasons far beyond being cheap.

It's time to start showcasing them.

 

Del Webb used the word affordable, not cheap.
And he seemed to market to the regular average couple who had worked hard, saved all their lives and deserved to be happy in their last years. I'm thinking about the original TV commercial.

Sun City board and management should never lose sight of this. We're not upscale and not meant to be. The people who want an upscale community have many other options.

I never liked the word cheap either because the implication is so negative.

 

To the former, former, former GM's credit, she refused to use the word cheap as well. The problem of course isn't in how we were labeled, but how we evolved around a concept where everything was focused on being way less expensive than everyone else. So much so we paid virtually no attention to details and proudly announced year after year; no increase in lot assessments and golf passes (PIF was raised every couple of years).

I've written often of the DEVCO marketing campaign and how they bragged on being able to live in Sun City for as little 5 cents a day. That was the cost of the yearly assessment fees per person broken down daily. They made a big deal of it, but they made an even bigger deal of what that nickle a day bought them. The point was never we were cheap, the point was the value they got for their investment.

Sun City is still the best value in the country. While some moan not so, i would ask them to show me anywhere that is on par with what we offer? They can't, and frankly they never even try. The closest to us is Sun City West. The oddity is they stayed with the per person rate while we adopted the flat rate lot assessment (2003). I've always argued per person is more fair, but it actually compounds the increases in SCW. If couples are comparing the two communities, Sun City is the better bargain. Worse yet, with more singles moving/buying into West than here, they need to pass on larger increases each year.

While i have lamented the decision many times, there is a residual impact on the choice of whether to buy in Sun City or Sun City West. Singles on balance pay the same irrespective of which community while couples in West pay twice as much. I know we don't market it that way, but there clearly is a difference.

The other often stated remark is we cannot raise rates because how many people live below the poverty level. Sorry, that kind of thinking is one of the reasons we fell so far behind. It's also why trying to grow the Sun City Foundation is critical. We have an infrastructure built around helping those in need, but realistically it won't save everyone from facing the challenges of not having enough money to live on as they grow older.

The white walls around us don't keep society's problems out, not even close. It's why i've written a hundred times, we can't stop change, we need to learn how to manage it. Marketing Sun City and all it offers will allow us to have better control of our future.

The biggest question is: Is this board willing to invest in selling Sun City and all it offers?

 

I hate to be the great naysayer, but in order to maintain and provide the amenities, as we know them and meet other regulatory demands, the yearly assessment will need to increase. Note, I said maintain, as in the cost of the rec centers and golf. The needed amenities to compete, yes, I said compete, in order to maintain relevance, will cost money. If one reads the various articles as to what the newest retirees are looking for, there will be a need to amend our offerings. Sorry to say this, but joining clubs is not on the list of desirable options. The new generation of retirees like small gatherings, places to socialize and have a drink with a small group, impromptu. They like spontaneous gatherings and parties, but will participate in larger events when the activity is of interest to them. The current structure of group activities occurring Monday through Friday during the day is not going to meet the needs of those continuing to work, seeking evenings and weekends for their gatherings. I realize what I am saying is not popular, but is a representation of what I read as what is being sought for the future. It’s what is being offered in today’s newest active adult communities. Are we going to try to compete with the amenities offered by other communities? Are what we offering still relevant? Remember, don’t kill the messenger, just asking questions because of what I read compared to what we have.

 

That's the beauty of a site like this, everyone is entitled to their opinion Carole. My problem with your remarks is that mindset that one size fits all. It doesn't and i'd be stunned if it ever will. There will always be those who want something different, something uniquely for them. With some 3000 plus age restricted communities the options are endless; as they should be.

I hate to admit this, but i have been following and writing about trends in senior communities since we moved here in 2003. By then Pulte had purchased the Webb Corporation (2001) with the sole purpose of taking age restricted living to the next level. They wanted the Del Webb Sun City brand and along with it they did regular surveys and summaries of changing trends as they prepared for the future.

Guess what they said: Golf wasn't going to be all that important and if there was a course it was owned by an outside company who specialized in running golf courses. They said communities would grow smaller, a lot smaller: That did two things, allowed them to get in and out quicker and dramatically reduce the amenities included. They projected that many of the coming retirees would want to stay closer to family and they began opening properties all across the country including cold weather climates. They knew people would be working later in life and some newer communities included dining rooms serving alcohol and more gathering areas. Green space without golf courses were added as walking trails.

All on point, but here's the rest of the story: The Villages of Florida, easily the largest and fastest growing age restricted community in the country, exploded in size. Free golf (albeit on their executive courses) was included in their amenity rates. And those clubs you say are a thing of the past, they have more than 3000 of them. They've doubled in size from around 75,000 residents to close to 150,000. Their plans are to keep on growing.

I've long argued and written, we cannot change what Sun City is. We can and must change how we are run. I watched in horror as golf was run without a care in the world. It was nuts to be selling prime tee times (Nov-April) to guys who were paying $5 to $10 a round when every other course was charging $40, $50 and sometimes twice that for high season rates. Then we compounded it all by ignoring our much needed maintenance and did absolutely nothing about our technology that was shitty at best.

The point through all of this is, we are what we are, and frankly the amenities we have are quite nice, especially for the yearly cost. It was a mistake to try and mold ourselves to try and be what others were. I wrote often: One of our weaknesses is, we are too big; one of our strengths is we are so big we can work through almost any problem we face.

The real question is how we react or use what we have? For too many years, we didn't do a very good job. We will never become the Villages (that's a good thing). We will never become one of those 250-500 small resort setting age restricted communities with high price tags and an even more high-brow approach to what and who they are. I shopped 5 different Sun City properties before we bought here; this one felt right, like a comfortable old pair of shoes. And, it was affordable.

We need to lean into who and what we are. Those who aren't interested, won't buy. Those unhappy with increasing costs will leave. The really great news is and always has been, someone is waiting to buy that home that opens when anyone leaves. We are too good a value to at least not consider. Now, if we could just get our head around restoring the values, Sun City home sales will end up spiking and all will be well with the world...at least the one we choose to call home.

 

Quick question. Is that why there has been a consistent 600+ homes for sale every time I check? (not including pending/contingent, 800+ if you include them). On average 100 to 160 sold per month in 2025.

 

[QUOTE The point through all of this is, we are what we are, and frankly the amenities we have are quite nice, especially for the yearly cost. It was a mistake to try and mold ourselves to try and be what others were. [/QUOTE]

That is why we have to market what we have. I've mentioned before that millions of people currently take part in amenities that we have here. Those are the people we have to reach. The people in dart leagues, racquet ball, garden clubs, orchestras, mini golf, and many others that are popular throughout the country.
We have to mention the area not just Sun City. We have 8 golf courses, plus 3 but we also have 185 more in the area. We have spring training and rookie league a few miles away. Casinos, concerts, and so much more within a few miles.
We have to let people know that living in Sun City is only part of it. You will be in a metro of almost 5 million but Sun City and all that we have here is where home buyers get the most for their money.

 

Being a part of Metro Phoenix is a great deterrent to many. The idea of having to drive in the traffic, since we no longer offer bus trips, is a big drawback, plus trying to find a place to park and then walk all that way. Then once you are in the ballpark, all the more walking. Did everyone forget this is a senior community? Have you driven in Phoenix or heaven forbid, Scottsdale traffic recently? You are literally taking your life in your hands. Two deadly accidents in a row in two nights proves my point.
Why is it so hard to get amenities that people desire right here, in Sun City? Why can’t we market Sun City to be the kind of place where they can have meet ups and provide the space. Why can’t we have intimate meeting spaces for small groups to have a glass of wine? Why don’t we go out of our way to have a small Italian bistro that doesn’t mean listening to bowling pins?
Why can’t we offer the ambiance and practical location to find it?
Marketing what we have is some tired rec centers that don’t meet what folks are looking for. Having said all that, no one is going to change their mind, stay with the status quo and in how many years hear the word that we need to market Sun City and its not working.and blame the board. I will not say anything more about the topic of marketing Sun City because it’s a moot point. The fix is in, have a great day.

 

“We have to let people know that living in Sun City is only part of it. You will be in a metro of almost 5 million but Sun City and all that we have here is where home buyers get the most for their money.” ~ old & tired

old & tired, I agree, people choose to live in an active 55+ lifestyle community for many reasons.

In addition to promoting the many facilities and amenities the Recreation Centers of Sun City, Inc. provides, through our annual assessments, the Valley of the Sun offers appealing experiences, too.

We don’t know what level of “active living” prospective buyers are looking for. I think RCSC should market all possible expectations they may have in their future home decision.

 

I agree with a lot of what Carole said. I have lived here for over 50 years now. I no longer like the huge metro Phoenix area. It has lost all of it's charm to me from the earlier smaller and easier days of living here.
I like the simplicity of living in SC. I lived in central Phoenix for a long time, and now the massive urbanization is no longer appealing. The only way we can maintain the resort charm in here is to have some magnificent Rec centers and maintain the physical beauty for residents in here. We can't do anything about the urban jungle around us, but we can and absolutely need to have a vision for keeping SC special, somehow.
I am more of a realist now, I think because we have more moderate to low level housing, we will always be middle of the road, but we can make it special if we enforce our rules, and have some sparkling centers where members can relax and enjoy senior years. Because of the urban jungle, crime and poverty near us, our finest days may be over unless we have a decisive plan to maintain and make better.

 

Sorry gang, i can't get on the doom train; we simply aren't anywhere near there. Here's the anomaly from my remarks: I have a simple philosophy, if i can't get there on my golf car, i don't want to go. To say it another way, i like/love living within our white walls. I like/love what we offer, i like/love our cost to live here and if i won the lottery tomorrow (nope, don't buy tickets), i wouldn't move anywhere else.

Here's the rub, i start everyday with news-feeds and subscriptions from around the US. I read stories than i suspect many of you ignore. Or, perhaps you read them and don't compare them to what is going on here. I do and i'm here to tell you this: Inflation is everywhere. Traffic around the country in major population centers is crushing with people killed everyday in car accidents. Crime happens everywhere, even places with paid police services. Homelessness exits in warm weather climates more so than in parts of the country that suffer through five or six months of winter. Home owners insurance rates are exploding in parts of the country due to the increasing number of severe weather events. Restaurants and bars, retail stores and banks are closing around the country because of online services becoming more the norm. I could on, why bother?

Pretending all this stuff is just happening in Sun City is folly. In fact, that old marketing slogan created by DEVCO: "Sun City is a small town in miniature" still holds true in many cases. Let me be even more clear, when we opened in 1960, Scottsdale was well established as a community built for those with money. Lots of rich folks had their winter homes there. We, Sun City, never tried to compete with them and more importantly never tried to be them.

We were built around a platform of affordability. We were built around a concept that DEVCO touted: "A New Active Way Of Life." We grew into a community with these values; ownership, accountability, responsibility and an endearing sense of pride that came with that sense of community the company and the home owners worked so hard to perfect. Every single one of these values is still available to us, if we work towards them.

I ran for the RCSC board in 2011 because i saw us running away from those values. After three long years on the board i came to understand (along with Carole), we had no chance to stop the direction we were headed in. The board believed in and supported the GM, we were little more than speed bumps on the road to a new and improved Sun City. Or, at least some thought to be the case.

While some of you lament the evolution, i see small baby steps being taken. I know exactly what and who we are, the question really is can we return to our roots? Can we forge a way forward, not to become Scottsdale, or Sun City West, or The Grand or even The Villages of Florida? All of the ingredients are and always have been available to us via our history. Sadly, much of it changed when we looked away.

We absolutely need to get the Mountain View remodel done (whatever that means or entails). Once finished there, the next big hurdle is the Lakeview Recreation remodel. That is, that will be the test whether we can evolve and remain relevant to Generation X and those coming after them. I'm fine with a master plan, a community intervention or whatever shape it takes. It will define us; the only tragedy is the Lakes Club won't be a part of the campus.

50, 60 who knows, maybe even 70 million dollars to get it right. There's a good chance i will be long gone before its completed. Oddly, that for too long has been the challenge for any serious long term planning in this community. We tended to look at everything in the short term. I often wrote/joked about this: In Sun City, short term planning was what we did this week. Long term planning was what we were doing next month.

Dare i say we suffered from a serious case of being short-sighted. Even with that, i would not have chosen any place other than Sun City. It was and it still is that damned good for just a guy.

 

Bill, I agree with many of your ideals of SC and all of our unique historical qualities we achieved so many years ago. For many things you said, I agree. What I am concerned about is the high density of the area that has been happening more and more. Even as of ten years hence, the community and surrounding area had a sense still of peaceful serenity. You don't live close to Grand Ave., so you maybe don't see all the vagrants roaming around and thru here during the day. We saw a guy urinating on the back wall of the former Acuity building the other evening. I have been approached 3 times in the past 10 years by strangers in the Frys shopping market either asking for money, or telling me something was wrong with my car, when there wasn't. I no longer shop at that Frys but it is the closest market to me. I never had this happened when I lived in north central phoenix, so you must understand, I am concerned about the degradation of areas near us. I have chosen to get involved with the county and express thoughts to Ms. Lesko our county supervisor. I want to try to remain living in SC but that question is not totally clear with me if the area isn't more protected and we get some things upgraded in here. Respectfully, Eileen

 

I will not go there either Eileen, for several years now, even though it is my favorite grocery store. The Grand Bldg. had to be secured. I did drive down 111th to Alabama to pick up dog food. 3pm and some kids were smoking something, cops came and they scattered. Will not be going South of grand anymore. Peoria Pet Market is my go-to for the pups now. In addition, just saw a post about a homicide in the 10800 block of W Camelot Circle near Duffyland dog park. We all need to be aware of our surroundings.

 

Bill,
I said I wasn’t going to say anything more, but my frustration level is pretty high, so I felt compelled to respond.
The ads offered by Meeker are probably still useful today. The print media still useful today with tweaks to make them more relevant. I am not against marketing the community, I feel that asking the board to pick up the torch and get busy with marketing is like asking them to beat a drum and walk in circles. When the open house to welcome new members occurred, how many presentations were there? Any time presented for those still working full time? Meeker used lots of print media for the ads, so people had something tangible to read and hold onto. Do we have any print media of current events or social activities going on this week? Or today? Don’t even try to compare email blasts to a newsletter that highlights your community. Ever tried to really read email blasts and special events on a cell phone? Some folks have really large screens, but they are few and far between. Ever tried to read a listing of events on a cell phone? If it were printed, along with other community events and services,highlighted by local media as to clubs and notable individuals in the area.
Meeker had people ready to reach out to perspective members of the community. See any movement on that front?
Meeker did everything he could to reach people at every level, so since so many new members still work, how much outreach is happening to attract those new members into the fold? Clubs operate during the day, during the week. How do you promote something unattainable to the new members? You want to grow the community to attract those who would volunteer to be on the board? How can most people do that in today’s society? We are not meeting the members where they are
If we still had access to bus services, think how great it would be to be able to have perspective members tour rec centers, pro shops, coffee shops at the golf courses and the bowling alleys.
That is what Meeker would be doing. Not relying on electronic media, but real interaction with people. Now that I got all that said, I feel a little better. Thank you

 

Hi Josie, Thanks for sharing. I did not know of homicide near Duffyland. When did this happen? I think we need to be grounded in certain realities of the surrounding neighborhood now. This place was pristine for some 40 years, no question. I was here and came in here all the time to dine, and shop at all the lovely small owned shops in the day. I also always wanted to live here since I was a teenager, so nothing hurts me more to see what is happening around us, and all over the city. What will keep us okay is conserve, protect and try to keep us current, modern and attractive, but homebuyers are not blind, they will see the age and the problems near us with there own eyes. We have a huge unique challenge in trying to keep us vital and attractive to new incoming home buyers.