Here is yet another article from a credible source (Wall Street Journal) proclaiming the inverse relationship between real estate values and communities inextricably linked to golf ("Fore Sale"): Fore Sale: The Golf Housing Bust - WSJ In some communities, they can't even give away free lots because of the high costs of maintaining the courses. Is Sun City there? Certainly not...yet. However, we can easily see the upward trajectory of the PIF to support these courses for a game that continues to decline. While it may not be easy to see, this is hurting every member of Sun City. It is hurting your property values. Potential buyers must take it into consideration in the total cost calculation and discount the house appropriately. Buyers are making decisions like "if I amortize the PIF, maybe the value is not as great as they say it is." Where it is really hurting the owners is in terms of Opportunity Cost. Think of the amenities that could be purchased with that money that is spent on golf. Amenities that potential new owners (and existing owners) desire, raising property values for all. Amenities that the 80-90% that don't golf want and desire. When I see that most of the new PIF revenues are tied to golf, I cringe. Sun City has changed, yet the RSC is doing the same thing (definition of insanity). A thorough analysis of the alternatives is needed. Can the courses be repurposed with a vote? What exactly is required in terms of maintaining them as golf courses? Could some be maintained as golf museums allowing the operational costs to be shed? Someone mentioned Frisbee golf. Not a crazy as it sounds and certainly less crazy than spending millions to redesign a golf course. The situation requires out of the box thinking. These are issues that a Future Planning Committee should be addressing. Instead, Sun City continues to do the same thing, while the world changes around them. This is not an anti-golf rant. For sure, it is a great game. It is about balance and change. Sun City has lost its amenity balance, yet that imbalance has been projected well into the future. The community has also lost their balance as a self-governing community and is looking more like an aristocracy every day.
Great points R and surely the kinds of discussions we should be having within the community...unfortunately we aren't. I did note the article was from 2012, seems finding current data is tricky. It would be good to see what has happened to golf in 2014 and 2015. Then we could compare it to what is happening in Sun City and see if we are on the same trajectory. Oh wait, no one will post those figures. Just for everyone's sake, here's the gm/company line regarding PIF allocations on golf. The PIF started in 2000 and over a 20 year period we will have raised and spent in the neighborhood of 100 million dollars on our amenities. Her position is the distribution will be about a 60/40% breakout; with 40 million for golf and 60 million for other. Board members look at that and agree it sounds fair. The counter argument is about 17% of Sun City residents golf, so is it fair? I tend not to fall into that trap, because in the end, whatever amenity we own, we need take care of it. The bigger question becomes, how much do we really need to take care of it? Again, not a discussion we have in this community, but left to the powers that be to make those decisions for us. Your most salient point was by using so much of the PIF for golf, what have we missed that we could have done? I've argued at length over the possibilities of taking the Lakeview Rec Center and accompanying grounds (with buying the Lakes Club) and creating a massive community center and corresponding park along the lake and adjacent to Meeker mountain. It's already gorgeous, but imagine what it could be. When we were looking at it while on the board, the mantra was; "don't tell anybody. Hell, in retrospect there should have been a town hall meeting to see how people felt. Finally, here's one sentence that jumped out at me from the article: "The model of a country club in its current form is gone forever," says Mr. Kitson. Let's be clear, the article was talking about high end developments. That said, Sun City has 8 community courses and 3 private country clubs. Each of those country clubs was owned by residents who bought shares/memberships. In the past 10 years, those country clubs have been bought out by individuals. To their credit, they bought them and are trying to make a go of it. The simple fact is, the land under them is worth way more than it is as a struggling private club/golf course. Obviously what happens to them is beyond what Sun City residents can do anything about, but as we reinvest in our community courses, they fall further behind competitively. From my perspective, i would just feel so much better if we had a true long range planning committee, studying trends and shaping the community to fit changing demographics and the needs and wants of those coming along behind us. But then that probably makes way too much sense eh?
Here are some current articles speaking to golf participation trends: The Death of Golf - Men's Journal Why America fell out of love with golf - The Washington Post Final U.S. golf participation numbers for 2015, as reported by the National Golf Foundation (NGF), showed a 600,000 decrease for the year, to 24.1 million, from 24.7 million in the two previous years. The NGF’s numbers count those over the age of 6 who played golf at least once during the year. The evidence is overwhelming that this is a game in decline. For me, spending 40% of PIF revenues to support something done by 17% of residents (and falling precipitously) is grossly out of whack. Continuing that trend well into the future without any forethought, is just plain whacked.
Speaking of changing demographics: "Every macro-indicator that we've been looking at for the past 20 years -- rounds played, number of minorities playing, women coming into the game -- all of these things that we tracked says that there's less people playing," Mark King, a former TaylorMade president and current president of Adidas North America, told HBO's "Real Sports" last year. Speaking of trends: "That drop-off has hit America's greens and links hard. More golf courses closed than opened in 2013 for the eighth straight year, according to the National Golf Foundation. And the number of course closures has sped up, averaging 137 closings every year since 2011, data from golf-industry researcher Pellucid show." Without a plan, without a direction, ten years from now as the courses sit vastly underutilized (some perhaps not even open), many will ask why did we spend all that money on golf and think what could have been.
Thanks R, great reads and exactly the kinds of information we should be feeding the long range planning committee as we build for the future. There's mountains of data we could be looking at to set a course that makes sense and is based on something other than the gm's whim and the board members nodding their heads like the bobble head dog in the backseat window. You said it Riggio, 10 years from now when all of the board members and management has moved on, we'll know for sure if what they have done made sense. Personally i would feel a whole lot better if it had been a decision by the community, rather than a few. If it works, i'll be the first to tip my hat, if it fails, so what, no one will be held accountable. Who knows, maybe by investing Sun City will be the choice the handful of golfers left playing the game will be graving for.
How cool is that thingie SCR? Wonder if you need a pilots license to play the courses? Anyone notice of late the barrage of hate mail regarding Sun City golf courses? Damn, lots of folks blowing smoke over their play-ability. What hurts is we put so much of Sun City's future on hold as we shoveled near on 40 million dollars into our courses and out buildings. Tragic from my perspective...but i have a bias in that i voted against spending that much money on a sport that was fighting to stay relevant.
Yep, it's cool, but it is also a device ripe for abuse. It's probably one of those things that will be instituted by the board in their usual transparent methods. I have long ago (maybe 7 to 8 years ago) on another forum suggested that golf is a sport in decline and Sun City spends too much on golf alone. The reactions I got were all negative and had I expressed this at a board meeting I probably would have been stoned to death. I don't know first hand if the courses are in good or bad shape, but spending 40 million on a sport in decline to satisfy a minority is preposterous. Sun City must cap expenditures on 8 golf courses and require higher fees from those who use the courses. The current situation on golf courses in Sun City is very similar to Epcors desire to consolidate widely dispersed water districts and make Sun City pay a higher rate to subsidize districts that have higher waste water usage and higher fees. It's quite a lot like Socialism. The answer to expenditures on golf courses eludes me at present, but I'm sure there are other who have an equitable solution to this issue.
I saw a program the other day about an upscale community that turned a golf course into a small community farm. They paid someone to to the work and then sold the produce at farmers market to pay for itself. At least the water is going to a needed product that way...fresh food. OK I doubt if this could ever be done in Sun City but its a great idea when we have so many golf courses. At least one could be used for something else and it would still have mostly green space. Dream on.
Actually SCR, much to the chagrin of my friends on the right, Sun City is steeped in a socialistic society. When you live here, we all pay...whether you use everything or nothing. Now the good news is, we also enjoy that old right wing tenet of pulling ourselves up by our bootstraps...the best of both ideologies eh? But back to golf. As much as we all struggle with the numbers of courses, it's also a blessing. We have countless homes bordering our golf courses and they are highly desirable...whether you golf or not. And we have to maintain them and the infrastructure it takes to keep them playable. That means having strong wells and solid irrigation that brings good water distribution. The good news is, the equipment that is on the market today is 1000 times more efficient than what was buried in the ground 40 and 50 years ago. Throw in the move to desert landscaping and we are on the right path. I get crazy over the traps and greens and tee boxes we are doing in their master plan...which so far has proven to be an abysmal failure. Who knows what the future holds for Sun City and golf? It's exactly why i have been pleading for a true long range planning committee. I know it sounds dumb to the current board, but having a plan and goals before spending boatloads of money just seems like the right way to function.
Got one more project to get out of the way and as folks start to filter back in we can set a meeting to see what direction we take the club in. Safe to say it won't be on the condition of Sun City courses...though we could easily become one of fastest growing clubs in the world.
